Short-term: USD long view challenged

I'm still waiting for that ingenuous trade idea to pop into my head. Everything seems to be challenging my USD long view right now - at least in the short run.

Given that lack of inspiration I'm turning to a country that's known for being just as neutral: I like the EURCHF chart below. Nice trendline that's been confirmed a couple of times since 2007.

Open positions as of 18/01/2017 9:00am CET: Flat

Realized YTD return: +0.7% from 2 trades

Risk-off ahead of Theresa May speech, but GBP rebounds

The GBP rebounded somewhat from its Monday low and currently trades around 1.2120. This is despite a broad risk-off sentiment ahead of Theresa May's speech at 11:45am London time today: Gold and the JPY are up, equities and the USD are down from yesterday. Market participants expect May to announce that her government will favour a "hard" Brexit rather than a "half in, half out" agreement.

Cable is still trading close to its lows with negative momentum intact. GBP futures positions are still deep in negative territory but less extreme than in mid-2016, suggesting that the fall in the GBP might well continue. Hard Brexit + Trump = GBPUSD approaching parity? That seems extreme at the moment, but it's something I consider.

With this much uncertainty in the markets but no real story to play just yet I feel comfortable on the sidelines. Waiting for ECB on Thursday and, more importantly, to finally see some actions by Trump and his cabinet beginning early next week after his inauguration on Friday.

Open positions as of 17/01/2017 9:00am CET: Flat

Realized YTD return: +0.7% from 2 trades

GBP down as market braces itself for hard Brexit

I've lost conviction in my EURUSD long trade which I opened at 1.0646. I still think the pair has potential to go up to 1.07-.08 but there's no real momentum, so I'm looking for opportunities elsewhere. Closed trade at 1.0608 to realize 0.36% loss.

Sterling got pummeled during the Asian trading session as market participants are pricing in the possibility of a hard Brexit ahead of Theresa May's speech on Tuesday. I'm seeing a low of 1.1986 on BBG but with GBP short momentum still intact it wouldn't be surprising to see cable go for its "flash crash" low in the 1.1752-1.1841 range. (When it comes to flash crashes, data become somewhat unreliable. Depending on which data feed you're using and which brokers/banks are contributing prices to the feed, you will see different lows. Thin liquidity is another problem with quoted prices recorded during flash crash periods.)

Open positions as of 16/01/2017 9:00am CET: Flat

Realized YTD return: +0.7% from 2 trades

Dollar Index quarterly chart since 1964

I've got no new trade idea today, so I'm posting this quarterly chart of the DXY going all the way back to 1964. Although I'm currently short USD vs EUR following the ridiculous Trump presser, I still expect a stronger USD in the medium to long term.

Whether the DXY will test its support at 100 first or turn around and go straight for the 105 handle depends strongly on what Donald Trump and his cabinet will be doing after 20 January and how quickly they will go about it. We already know they're set on repealing Obamacare as soon as possible, but market participants are still waiting for details on Trump's promised economic stimulus package. Needless to say, pressuring American companies into adding more jobs in the U.S. is one thing, delivering real change across the board will be far more challenging.

I'm not expecting any big moves in the USD before the inauguration and hence my short-term target in EURUSD remains 1.0700-20.

DXY QuarterlyOpen positions as of 13/01/2017 1:04pm CET:
EURUSD long from 1.0646, unrealized return: flat

Realized YTD return: +1.06% from 1 trade
Total YTD return: +1.06% from 2 trades

Selling USD vs EUR & TRY

Following yesterday's disastrous Trump press conference I'm buying EURUSD at 1.0646 with a first target at 1.0720 (trendline from 2002). I'm also selling USDTRY at 3.81. Originally, I was going to buy TRY vs EUR to pick up carry but with Trump being the clown that he is I'm hoping for USD weakness in the short term.

Update 3:50 PM CET:
USDTRY short closed at 3.77 for quick 1.06% profit, EURUSD long still open